Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
