🔗 Share this article

Just 48 hours before the NYC race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange issued a significant forecast – not just the winner citywide, but block by block. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in New York City, has spent more than ten years in left-leaning activism and has become a kind of well-known figure this year for his deep dives into municipal statistics and polling.

He released his extremely precise forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate was victorious although missing Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his newsletter, the Narrative War. He has a flair for witty coinages. He highlighted, as an example, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from one neighborhood to Bushwick to Astoria, where he predicted (accurately) that Mamdani would triumph by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, certain media outlets and financial newspapers surpass the New York Times” in audience and the majority of electors leaned toward Cuomo, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Patterns and Surprises

What was your election night?

I had to do that since they were dropping approximately 200K ballots into the system frequently! I felt somewhat anxious initially: Mamdani was ahead the early vote by 12 points, but came two big batches of votes that came in after that and his lead dropped from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, it was possible in which election day turned out kind of poorly for him, in which Cuomo was going to end up essentially doubling his votes from the earlier contest. But the winner gained half a million supporters to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He went out and greatly broadened his support from the primary.

Expanding Support

How did Mamdani gain additional support from?

He assembled the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse racially, youthful, it’s renters and individuals facing cost pressures. He improved significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the primary. Plus he boosted his base of liberal progressives, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He created the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: diverse, youthful, tenants and residents squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were some supporters of both candidates – is that a big trend?

It is a genuine phenomenon, confined to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Muslims. Electors in ethnic enclaves that went for Trump previously went for Zohran this year. But I wouldn’t say he was gaining white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Impact

One of the big stories of the night was the record participation. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Participation was significantly higher than anticipated. I thought it could exceed 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – which is a huge number of participants. Existed a substantial anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but his supporters was also motivated, and that was enough to win.

You predicted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Currently it appears he’s favored to get over 50%. He has just over 50% but remain around 200,000 votes uncounted at that time. So it’s not certain, but I believe probable, and I wish he achieves it so afterwards no one can say the Republican was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His support plummeted.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any borough. Including one neighborhood in Staten Island, similar to an highly conservative neighborhood. That really surprised me. Cuomo kept Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and plus gained many Republicans on Staten Island with a high participation. I believe there was a lot of strategic balloting by GOP voters. They were doing it before the former president tweeted his support for the candidate, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide if Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your often-discussed “commie corridor” – was support for Mamdani dominant in those parts of the boroughs?

In my view there was some weakening of the progressive zone in some areas like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and homeowners supported the independent. Thus there existed a little resistance. However overall, largely the leftist base is a key factor why Mamdani won – he was polling between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the vote there was coverage on whether Mamdani was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he did?

There are neighborhoods with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. But in the affluent districts such as the Manhattan area, his position on Israel was influential there. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored the independent. And also, you have newcomers from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, they were pretty staunchly Cuomo. So it’s unclear if there were major surprises on this one, but he retained left-leaning areas and even parts of the another locale with large leads.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what the city means politically? Will the progressive base serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest figures from the left come from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that we’ll see additional examples – people will come from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

However I believe that every city in the US can have their own commie corridor. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in the nation – because they’re young, tenancy is common and they represent locales where people are crushed by the disparities we face.