Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Major Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Multiple figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to head off any future leadership challenge.

The party apparatus reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.