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Within the widespread uncertainty regarding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “control” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a deeply alarming precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but the early hours of Saturday witnessed its premier large-scale offensive on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.

The decision to unilaterally attack another state and seize its president – mere days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – possesses far-reaching consequences. This ought to concern everyone.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has remarked that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other parts of the headless administration are considerably more radical.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who came to office pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a renegade nation.

He believes that the United States' strength allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He asserts that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came absent any United Nations mandate or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to destroy them.

Set aside the implication this carries to global powers like Russia and China, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will surely embolden further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

Few believe the excuse that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is motivated by the allure of petroleum resources as well as machismo, the worldview of key officials, and the desire for glory as domestic popularity wanes.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could still pressure him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, financial discontent and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.

Barely 12 months into his time in office. Other governments may live to repent if they stay silent now, with the question of which nation is next looming.